On 23 August, Islamic State (ISIS) fighters attacked the Libyan National Army (LNA)-controlled al-Fugaha checkpoint in Jufra. Eleven victims were beheaded. On 27 August, Amaq released a new video showing two abductees and featuring several ISIS fighters guarding a checkpoint on a road near Jufra, south of Sirte.
Islamic State (ISIS) militants attacked the Libyan National Army (LNA)-controlled al-Fogha checkpoint near Jufra this morning, killing at least nine soldiers and two civilians. According to LNA spokesman Ahmed Mismari, the eleven victims were beheaded and many others were left injured. The IS Amaq news agency released a statement this morning claiming the incident and […]
Two individuals were tried on terror charges in Tripoli after alleged involvement in a series of attacks in the capital, including the assault on the Corinthia Hotel in January 2015. The defendants have not been named and it is unclear how they came to be detained. BM forces published trailers of upcoming ‘confessions’ by Libyan ISIS fighters captured during fighting between BM and ISIS.
On 13 August, a delegation of Misratan power brokers and senior BM figures travelled to Qatar to meet with Qatari officials. Media reports say Qatar is prepared to support the BM’s military operations in addition to logistical support. The conflict between the LNA and DMSC deescalated slightly as the LNA eased the full siege it enacted on Derna two weeks ago, but new airstrikes on DMSC positions in the west of the city indicate a potential for re-escalation.
Despite a lack of concrete evidence of connection between the mafia and extremist groups, rumors circulate about cooperation in the illicit economy via fuel and drug smuggling in the Sahara Desert. GNA- aligned al-Bunyan al-Marsus forces continue to conduct anti-ISIS reconnaissance missions in Abu Hadi area, south of Sirte.
On 29 July, the Sabratha municipal council, with the cooperation of local tribes, mobilized a new security force. Dubbed the ‘anti-Islamic State (ISIS) Operation Room’ the force is intended to police the areas around Sabratha and Mellitah. After raising the anti-ISIS alert level last week, BM forces reported that ISIS activity on the road between Sirte and Jufra continues.
On 29 July, a majority of Libya’s CDA voted to approve the latest draft of the Libyan constitution draft, even as local and armed protestors attempted to disrupt the vote and assaulted some CDA members. The Head of the CDA formally issued the constitution draft on 31 July, and with HoR approval the document should progress to a national referendum within the next 30 days.
On 28 June, two ISIS captives being held in Misrata, one Libyan and the other Egyptian, were said to have escaped from the military intelligence agency. In Sabri, the LNA discovered the remains of an LNA officer killed by ISIS in an execution video.
The French Defence Minister called Libya a ‘failed state’ and warned that the jihadist threat remains. On 30 June, the UNSC extended measures banning illicit export of crude and refined petroleum, and urged member states to support Libya in defeating ISIS and Ansar al-Sharia.
Forces belonging to the GNA-aligned BM forces allegedly captured an ISIS fighter, during an operation to retrieve hijacked fuel trucks south of Sirte. Lone-wolf suicide attack at the LNA controlled Sidra gate checkpoint, kills the assailant and one other.
REPORT: The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya
In “The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya,” Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith and Karim Mezran examine ISIS’s pre-history, birth, expansion, consolidation, and dispersal in Libya, as well as the broader political context of the country –offering advice and recommendations for how Western governments and militaries should approach jihadist actors globally.
The LNA-affiliated 116 brigade reportedly arrested a jihadist cell, including an ISIS member, in an anti-terrorism raid in Sebha. Three members of the al-Bunyan al-Marsus 166 brigade were killed in ambush south-west of Sirte, suspected to have been carried out by ISIS fighters.
Mapping Libya’s Jihadists
In a long form article for Norwegian NGO Hate Speech International, Jason Pack and Rhiannon Smith map out the history and context of Libya’s myriad jihadist groups.
The LNA took the Jufra airbase from the GNA-aligned BDB last week, pushing the BDB north towards Sirte. The GNA issued decisions dividing Libya into 7 military zones, igniting protests in eastern Libya.
On 24 May, local militias clashed with ISIS fighters near Bani Walid. Four ISIS fighters were killed. In Tripoli, RADA forces arrested the father and brother of Manchester suicide bomber Salman Abedi. They claim Abedi and his brother are members of ISIS.
On 26 May, pro-GNA Tripoli militias evicted rival anti-GNA militias from the capital, taking over key sites including Hadba prison. 52 people were killed in the fighting. The LNA recognised the pro-GNA militias’ efforts against ‘Islamist terrorists’.
The Role of 20th Century Jihadism in Manchester Attack
In an article for Al Monitor, Jason Pack and Lydia Jabs discuss the role that suicide bomber Salman Abedi’s connection to, and his family’s long history within, Libya’s tight-knit activist Salafi movements may have had on radicalizing Abedi and facilitating last week’s attack in Manchester.
On 14 May, three fuel trucks were seized by ISIS fighters on the road from Abu Grien to Jufra, south of Sirte. BM leaders also received threats from ISIS via social media accusing them of being “infidels assisting imperialists”.
On 7 May, ISIS claimed responsibility for an ambush of GNA-affiliated Misratan Third Force fighters 100km south-west of Sirte. In Benghazi, the LNA published the execution video of an Algerian ISIS fighter captured in Sabri.
In a joint press conference with the Italian PM, Trump said he does not see a role for the US in Libya. Days later, Defence Secretary Mattis said that success in Libya would be difficult if the US focused exclusively on counterterrorism.
Southern Libya Shield forces led by Islamist commander Ahmed Abdul Jalil Al-Hasnawi, and militias affiliated with, the pretender and jihadi-aligned PM Khalifa Al-Ghwell, have joined GNA-affiliated forces in the fight against the LNA in Southern Libya.
On 6 April, several Eritrean and Nigerian women who were captured and enslaved by ISIS in Sirte were released from prison in Misrata, and will be able to apply for asylum or be repatriated.
The al-Lathama bridge into Sabri in Benghazi was destroyed last week, reportedly by jihadists to prevent the LNA from advancing westwards. In Sirte, residents are returning and some public services are resuming.
Head of US AFRICOM says US will maintain a force in Libya to work with the GNA if necessary against ISIS, estimates 100 – 200 ISIS fighters left in the country.
On 18 March, the LNA announced it had fully liberated Ganfuda from jihadists and began targeting Sabri and Souq al-Hout. The LNA has also retaken the Oil Crescent and on 20 March, pushed further south.
On 13 March, the LNA launched a major offensive to take control of the 12 Flats area of Ganfuda in Benghazi, while the head of AFRICOM has warned that ISIS are regrouping in Libya.
On 14 March, the LNA launched a counter attack against the BDB. Following intense fighting, by the end of the day the LNA claimed to be in control of the Oil Crescent once more, including the oil ports.
Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, the head of US Africa Command, said that the US obtained significant intelligence from the Islamic State (ISIS) camps, located 45km south of Sirte, which were hit by US airstrikes on 19 January.
A suspected ISIS arms cache containing unguided air-to-ground bombs and fuel was reportedly found by LNA units approximately 90km south of Nawfaliya, while there are reports ISIS cells are regrouping in the regions south-west of Misrata, near Bani Walid.
On 6 February, a video was published on Libyan social media showing the execution of an LNA fighter by an ISIS fighter in Benghazi. The video has sparked an angry reaction and is being seen as further proof of collaboration between ISIS and BRSC in Benghazi.
Local sources in Jufra report a new mobilization by GNA/Islamist affiliated groups who reportedly plan to attack Ras Lanuf port in the coming weeks. Rivalries between militias of various factions in Tripoli are escalating, with various rival armed groups implicated in clashes, kidnappings and armed assault.
BM forces visited the site of US airstrikes against ISIS fighters last week and found bodies, underground stores and camouflaged hideouts. In Sirte, tribal elders accuse BM forces of looting and theft.
On 10 January, the BRSC said that the ISIS breakout from the Benghazi areas of Sabri and Ganfuda on 5 January caused ‘some’ disarray in their ranks, calling the ISIS withdrawal a ‘betrayal’. The BRSC and their supporters are facing a growing scandal over their exposed collaboration with ISIS.
Last week, clashes resumed between the Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Haftar and the coalition of jihadis in Benghazi as the LNA attempted to take full control of the Abu Saneeb area of Ganfuda. A number of LNA fighters and jihadi fighters were killed during the fighting.
There are reports of ISIS fighters sabotaging infrastructure in south-west Libya, including an attack on the Man Made River pipeline. An anti-ISIS tribal coalition has reportedly been formed to counter this threat. In Sirte, an ISIS suicide bomber attacked BM forces but no casualties were reported, while ISIS fighter says Tunisia journalists were executed in Derna.
There are reports of an ISIS presence in south-west Libya, with ISIS fighters reportedly use the desert roads to move between areas, raid supplies and establish checkpoints. In Sirte, a Salafist brigade has been tasked with securing the city.
The LNA air force launched airstrikes against a BDB base in Hun last week. A Misratan brigade reportedly suffered losses during the attack, indicating a possible alliance between the BDB and some Misratan forces.
LNA forces are making gradual gains against jihadi fighters in Ganfuda but 11 LNA fighters were killed in one day last week during intense fighting. A vessel travelling from Misrata to Benghazi loaded with weapons and personnel was intercepted as Misratan authorities begin to crack down on hardliners in the city.
BRSC and ISIS suicide bombers attacked LNA fighters in Benghazi last week, even as gains were made in Ganfuda, and a video was found showing links between the Ansar al-Sharia groups in Libya and Tunisia. In Misrata, BM forces attacked BDB forces who had retreated to a camp in the city while LNA forces killed a high profile BDB commander during airstrikes in Jufra.
In Sirte, the BM forces finally declared victory against IS forces on 5 December, following heavy fighting and US airstrikes, and on 6 December they said they were securing the last few buildings in the area.
Clashes between Islamist militias allied with the Mufti and nominally pro-GNA militias broke out in Tripoli last week, killing 8 people in locations across the city. A ceasefire is now in place but tensions remain high. In Benghazi, 9 LNA fighters were killed as the LNA attempts to cut off jihadi fighters in Ganfuda.
Clashes in Libya indicate that the GNA is unable to control its own capital, further weakening its support in western Libya and hence its negotiating position. However, the declaration of BM forces’ victory against ISIS in Sirte could give the GNA a temporary boost in popularity given BM is nominally controlled by the GNA.
The beheading of a family in Khoms indicates ISIS fighters may have infiltrated the city, although the perpetrators of the attack are unknown. In Sirte, house-to-house fighting is taking place in the remaining few buildings where ISIS fighters are based, although BM forces continue to suffer losses.
BM forces are making slow but steady gains against ISIS in Sirte however they continue to suffer casualties and there are worrying signs that ISIS still has the capacity to resist and attack elsewhere, with ISIS posting pictures of checkpoints to the south of Sirte.
Tensions continue to grow between various anti-GNA, Islamist and pro-GNA factions across the country. The prospect of an Islamist offensive against the LNA in the oil crescent, supported by the GNA, remains possible, while in Tripoli, there are fears of imminent clashes between hardliners allied with the Mufti and pro-GNA Tripoli militias like RADA.
BM forces said last week that the area of Sirte controlled by ISIS fighters is now ‘less than the size of a football pitch’, while Trump’s anti-ISIS stance mean both pro-GNA and pro-Haftar forces are hopeful that they will receive support from the new US administration in their fights against ISIS and other jihadis.
BM forces stormed ISIS’s stronghold of al-Jiza al-Bahriya in Sirte last week, evacuating families used as human shields. BM forces are expected to declare victory against ISIS in Sirte soon.
There has been confusion this week over whether American airstrikes against ISIS positions in Sirte have ended or have just been paused temporarily, while the outcomes of the economic meeting in London are still unclear.
In Sirte, the BM spokesperson also said BM forces are allowing any civilians still living in the densely populated al-Jiza al-Bahriya area to evacuate before they make their ‘final’ assault.
Western powers hosted a controversial meeting in London on 31 October between Libyan officials to discuss Libya’s deteriorating economic situation, during which they reiterated their support for the GNA and Libyan Political Agreement.
In Sirte, the Misratan-led Bunyan al-Marsus (BM) forces, who are aligned with the GNA, have continued their assault against the remaining ISIS fighters in the city, while in Benghazi ISIS fighters engaged the LNA in Gawarsha.
Last week, UN and European diplomats visited PM Fayez Serraj and head of the High Council of State, Abdulrahman Swehli, to discuss the recent ‘coup’ attempt in Tripoli and to reaffirm their support for the Libyan Political Agreement and the GNA. The US have ramped up their airstrikes in Sirte and are in the process of switching the aircrafts involved in this campaign.
Battles continued last week between the Government of National Accord (GNA)-aligned, Misratan-led ‘Bunyan Marsus’ (BM) forces and Islamic State (ISIS) in Sirte. Despite repeated announcements of the city’s imminent liberation by BM forces, the end does not yet appear to be in sight.
ISIS forces are still entrenched within a roughly one square kilometre enclave in north-east Sirte and continue to inflict casualties on their Misratan opponents through their use of snipers and explosive devices. This week, the Misratan forces made further gains against the remaining ISIS fighters, with support from US air strikes.
After a lull in fighting last week, Bunyan al-Marsus forces launched a fresh offensive on ISIS-held areas of Sirte. They sustained heavy losses, while in an area of the city supposedly secured by BM forces, a Dutch journalist was killed by an ISIS sniper.
In Tripoli, tensions are growing between local Tripoli militias and their hard-line Islamist rivals, with a spate of kidnappings and assassinations taking place last week. In Benghazi and Derna, intermittent fighting continues between LNA forces and their jihadist rivals.
In Sirte, Misratan forces continue to battle ISIS fighters who remain barricaded in their stronghold in north-eastern Sirte. The Misratans suffered heavy losses last week after a renewed push to take the ISIS-held area, while ISIS fighters also launched a surprise attack against Sirte port.
A wide range of international and regional actors last week reiterated their support for the Libyan Political Agreement, called for de-escalation of the situation and welcomed the resumption of oil exports. U.S. AFRICOM also reported that the US has carried out 169 airstrikes to date in Sirte.
Fighting between LNA forces and jihadist groups continued last week in Benghazi and Derna, with little tangible progress taking place. The Benghazi Defence Brigades have been accused of launching airstrikes against LNA forces in the southern town of Jufra, which killed several civilians.
In Sirte, Misratan-led forces have begun a final push to destroy remaining pockets of ISIS in Sirte, while clashes have broken out between ISIS fighters and other militias to the south of Sirte, confirming that some ISIS members have managed to seep out of the city.
Fighting in Benghazi reduced dramatically in the last week, with only intermittent clashes taking place between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and jihadists, while the LNA continues to launch airstrikes against Derna Mujahedeen Shura Council (DMSC) positions in Derna.
The anti-ISIS coalition, such as exists, is in a state of flux after Haftar’s seizure of the oil ports. Misratan officials have said that they will not go to war against the LNA to support Jadhran, however after Haftar’s forces succeeded in repelling a counter attack against the Sidra and Ras Lanuf ports, they pushed to within 50km of Sirte where Misrata are currently battling ISIS.
In Sirte, the Misratan-led Bunyan al-Marsus forces have continued to make gains against the remaining ISIS forces, which are now holed up in a very small section of the city. However, progress is slow because the Misratans continue to suffer losses from sniper fire and suicide attacks.
The Misratan-led Al-Bunyan Al-Marsus forces are now very close to completely defeating ISIS in Sirte. The ISIS HQ in Sirte has been taken and was visited last week by the PM Fayez Al Serraj and some members of the GNA Presidential Council.
President Obama has extended the US military campaign in Sirte for an additional 30 days, while European nations continue to extend support for the Libyan Political Agreement.
In Derna, tensions between the Libyan National Army and jihadist forces are growing, with jihadist fighters attempting to launch a botched suicide attack against the LNA last week. There are reports of jihadist fighters from the Benghazi Defence Brigades tricking into Tripoli in anticipation of GNA fighters returning to the capital following the imminent defeat of ISIS in Sirte.
In Sirte, fighting halted last week but resumed fiercely on 27 August. The break in the fighting was reportedly to allow wives and children of ISIS fighters to exit the conflict zone towards the southwest, though there is no evidence confirming this actually took place. It is likely that key ISIS commanders will have taken advantage of this lull in fighting to escape to the south, meaning the destruction of ISIS in Sirte will not mean the eradication of ISIS in Libya… On 28 August, Bunyan Marsus (BM) fighters aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) closed in on ISIS-held districts 1 and 3 of Sirte. At least 35 were killed and more than 180 injured as a result of fierce fighting and reportedly 14 attempted SVBIED attacks by ISIS.
At the moment of partial victory in Sirte, various pillars that should make up the anti-ISIS coalition are feuding with each other. The House of Representatives (HoR) has rejected the Government of National Accord, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) are facing increasing tension over Zuetina in the oil crescent, and various interests are preventing oil production in order to seek their own demands.
Who Pays for ISIS in Libya?
In the report “Who pays for ISIS in Libya?”, James Roslington and Jason Pack look at the Libyan group’s sources of seed capital and how its financial model differs in key ways from that of the parent organization in Iraq and Syria. We conclude that ISIS’s financing mechanism in Libya appears to have failed long before the local group suffered its military reversals over the past few months. The Libya case study also reveals the importance of financing to ISIS’s and other jihadi organisations’ sustainability and organizational models throughout the world.
The Bunyan Marsus coalition continued its steady advance deep into the center of Sirte, taking major residential areas throughout the week with the help of US airstrikes. ISIS militants still fighting in these areas continue to show fierce resistance using snipers, mortars and SVBIEDs, but the gains made by Bunyan Marsus indicate that the entirety of Sirte may be liberated within the next two weeks.
On 22 August, the HoR managed to hold its first session since February 2016 with the required legal quorum. Of the 101 members in attendance, 61 voted no-confidence on the current GNA cabinet, but gave the Presidential Council a final opportunity to submit an amended cabinet for a possible future endorsement vote. This latest development is quite a blow to the internationally recognized GNA, as certain ministers have already assumed their mandates, but may have to now be replaced… In Western Libya, the conflict map is becoming slightly more complicated. The main tension inside the capital is between pro-GNA militias and anti-GNA Islamist/Misratan affiliated factions, signaling a very likely conflict between these militias after the victory in Sirte is secured.
As of 22 August, US Africa Command press statements say that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit has conducted 77 airstrikes in Sirte under Operation Odyssey Lightning. Meanwhile, the no-confidence vote for the Government of National Accord (GNA) dealt by the Libyan House of Representatives on 22 August creates significant issues for the international community’s attempts to provide support to the GNA. Further, it is not clear what affect this development will have on the West’s assistance package for the campaign against ISIS in Libya , which began on 1 August and was initiated at the request of the GNA.
The Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition made great gains against ISIS in Sirte, pushing ISIS out of its stronghold in Ouagadougu Centre, Ibn Sina Hospital and Sirte University on 11 August. All three buildings were bastions of ISIS rule in the city, and the group’s downfall represents a significant degradation of its presence and control. Paradoxically, the GNA’s impending victory over ISIS is also a moment of rapid decline in its legitimacy. This observation was recognized by UN special envoy Martin Kobler in a recent interview, saying that popular support for the GNA is crumbling due to worsening economic and security conditions throughout Libya.
New political wrangling within the GNA is widening rifts even further. On 10 August, the Presidential Council issued a statement threatening to nominate replacement candidates if two of its boycotting members, Ali Al Gatrani and Omar Laswad, did not rejoin within one week. The statement caused uproar among anti-GNA factions across Libya… Meanwhile, the GNA is unlikely to receive a significant boost in legitimacy or popular support until a total victory is achieved by Bunyan Marsus against ISIS in Sirte. However, even if this ISIS is crushed by the coalition, the GNA is not guaranteed to survive.
The Washington Post reported that US Special Operations forces are providing direct, on-the-ground support for Bunyan Marsus fighters battling the ISIS in Sirte. The US troops were tasked with coordinating American airstrikes and providing intelligence as the coalition ousted ISIS from its stronghold in the city center. A total of 48 US airstrikes have taken place steadily since 1 August, targeting ISIS positions throughout Sirte… Italy appointed a new ambassador to Libya, while members from the Italian Senate called for a European summit on Libya to address the shortfalls of the Libyan Political Agreement and the significant gaps in US, UK and EU policy towards Libya’s various factions.
Two major pronouncements were made this week. 1. Misratan forces continued their protracted advance into Sirte as battles supposedly moved into what Banyan Marsus is calling their ‘final stages’. 2. Simultaneously as the fight against ISIS has become less popular for some militia men in Tripoli, non-ISIS jihadis such as the grand mufti are expressing support for ISIS…. US support is also fuelling divides with Misratan ranks between pro-GNA formations and more anti-GNA hard-line militias. These divides may escalate the closer the BM gets to victory in Sirte. Anti GNA sentiment remains high in Misratan ranks, with many fighters rumoured to be actively ready to move against the GNA in Tripoli after victory in Sirte.
The US airstrikes are further polarizing opinion on the ground in Libya and are making strange bedfellows between the Islamists and Haftar who both oppose the airstrikes. It is also being reported that Italy is now offering support to the US operations… Ahmed Mismari, LNA spokesman claimed that the air raid was carried out for US electoral purposes to help Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, insisting that Sirte would be only liberated by the LNA.
After fierce fighting on 28-30 July, the Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition took full control of the Hay Dollar area in Sirte. The operation has thus far cost more than 300 Bunyan Marsus lives, with another 1,500 injured… On 1 August, Government of National Accord Prime Minister Fayez Serraj made a televised speech announcing the beginning of US airstrikes against ISIS in Sirte, following a formal request by the Presidential Council.
On 1 August, Government of National Accord (GNA) Prime Minister Fayez Serraj made a televised speech announcing the beginning of US airstrikes upon a formal request by the Presidential Council, and Libya’s joining of the international anti-ISIS coalition. Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook confirmed that US warplanes launched a new round of airstrikes against ISIS in Sirte at the request of the GNA. The direct involvement of the US on behalf of the GNA may have a direct impact on current political dynamics on the ground, and will likely raise tensions between GNA supporters and anti-GNA hardliners and Islamists in Tripoli.
In western Libya, the Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition made more gains against ISIS this week in Sirte. The coalition took control of the Hay El Dollar and Area “2” while continuing to conduct airstrikes against ISIS positions in the Ouagadougou complex. Despite these advances, the fight with ISIS is likely to be prolonged as the group continues to mount suicide vehicle attacks in a number of Misratan-controlled areas. The Sirte port remains under Bunyan Marsus control, despite continued ISIS attempts to retake the port using targeted suicide attacks.
On 22 July, large demonstrations took place in Tripoli, Misrata, Zawiyya, Zuwara and others denouncing the discovery of French fighters acting in coordination with Khalifa Haftar as evidence of a French invasion, and breaching of the internationally recognized political agreement. Anti-Government of National Accord (GNA) forces are using the event to re-consolidate political forces that had fragmented after the GNA replaced the former Islamist-aligned General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli on 30 March 2016… The credibility of the LNA took another severe hit after 14 bodies were discovered on 21 July in a rubbish dump in Benghazi, an area supposedly ‘liberated’ from ISIS in March 2016.
Fighting this week focused on the ISIS stronghold in the Ouagadougou Centre, Ibn Sina Hospital and Sirte University areas, with airstrikes and helicopter gunships featuring heavily in the battles. In short, very little progress is being made to dislodge ISIS from these areas. ISIS fighters still appear to have a presence in areas previously taken by Bunyan Marsus in Sirte’s south and west, and ISIS also appears to be attempting to flank Bunyan Marsus, indicating a more prolonged guerrilla war in the city.
The Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus anti-ISIS campaign in Sirte suffered setbacks on 15 July when at least 20 men were killed in multiple suicide attacks by ISIS militants… Security threats in the oil crescent are dramatically increasing, with higher prospects of a larger conflict in the short-medium term. On 17 July, fighting broke out between Libyan National Army (LNA) units, supported by local volunteers, and Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) in the town of Magrun, only 70 kilometers southwest of Benghazi… The BDB’s momentum is intensifying rifts in the region, especially between the LNA and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) commanded by Ibrahim Jadhran.
US Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on 18 July he is encouraged by developments against ISIS in Libya… UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned that ISIS fighters could set up new cells across Libya and North Africa as they are driven from Sirte.
In Sirte, the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Bunyan Marsus coalition continues to advance in the city, tightening the noose around ISIS militants holed up in its central areas… Bunyan Marsus leaders have said they expect the battle to be completed within the next two weeks, although other analysts predict a more drawn out battle… There is a suspicion that the senior ISIS leadership has already evacuated from Sirte. Informed sources say that Libyan ISIS members have attempted to defect to friendly Islamist militias south of Sirte, some of whom are nominally aligned with the Misratans.
On 6 July, the Libyan National Army (LNA) suffered major blows, with the death of 11 soldiers in a suicide attack, and downing of its ace Mig-23 pilot Major Idris Hamed Al-Obeidi. Obeidi, an iconic LNA fighter pilot, was killed when his plane crashed during a mission against jihadists in Ganfuda. On 10 July, Tariq Al Saiti, another iconic LNA solider who specialized in de-mining and was a highly respected figure in Benghazi, was killed. These setbacks have dampened the high hopes for a swift and decisive defeat of jihadists in eastern Libya.
On 8 July, a widely publicized leak shed light on active Western military support for Khalifa Haftar and the LNA. The leak has caused disarray in the GNA camp, especially within the ranks of Islamists. This new information is seen as evidence of a Western betrayal of the terms of the Libyan Political Agreement that produced the GNA… Speaking at a House of Lords Committee hearing on 7 July, Britain’s Ambassador to Libya Peter Millett said that he that he had visited Tripoli five times since the arrival of the GNA.
The port of Sirte port is now reportedly under the control of the Government of National Accord’s Bunyan Marsus coalition, after it managed to fully recapture the Suwawa area from ISIS on 1 July. Last week saw intensive fighting, with Misratan fighters making significant advances into the city, retaking the Zafaraan area and 700 residential district on 2 July. Meanwhile, airstrikes and heavy artillery continued to pound ISIS targets throughout the week.
Three key developments were identified last week: 1) The unabated momentum of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) Bunyan Marsus coalition against ISIS in Sirte, 2) the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) surge eradicated the remaining pockets of jihadi fighters in southwestern Benghazi and 3) and the influence of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) in the oil crescent has taken a significant hit.
Western countries continue to project support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), with a number of representatives travelling to Tripoli throughout last week to discuss immediate assistance… Haftar travelled to Moscow on 27 June, followed immediately by GNA deputy prime minister Ahmed Metig on 29 June to solicit Russian support… UN Special Representative Martin Kobler met with HoR Chairman Ageelah Saleh, and a delegation of HoR members and eastern tribal leaders, in Muscat on 28 June to explore the potential for political resolution.
The GNA’s Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus operations room launched a massive ground assault on 21 June in an attempt to capture the centre of Sirte. However, ISIS snipers and IED’s repeatedly dealt Bunyan Marsus significant losses throughout the week… At this time, Bunyan Marsus commanders estimate only 500-700 ISIS fighters remain in the city, contrary to higher estimates by the CIA and other foreign military sources.
The weakness of the Government of National Accord (GNA) was more fully realised in international diplomatic circles last week, when GNA Foreign Minister Taher Siala failed to make a positive impact on the European stage… During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on 22 June, President Barack Obama’s nominee to command US forces in Africa, Marine Lt. General Thomas Waldhauser, said that more ground troops were needed in Libya to fight ISIS and agreed the current strategy of not bombing the group there “makes no sense.”
This week witnessed the slowing momentum of the Government of National Accord’s (GNA) anti–ISIS operation in Sirte, as fierce ISIS counterattacks stalled the operation’s advance. This development is chiefly attributed to two factors: 1) ISIS is beginning to push back on the Bunyan Marsus advance inside Sirte, successfully and repeatedly hitting GNA forces behind their own front lines, and 2) the ‘defection’ of the hardline Islamist factions (e.g. Benghazi Defense Brigade) and other associated militias.
The political damage to the Government of National Accord (GNA), following the attack on Ajdabiya on 18 June by Islamist militias, may undo fragile militia alliances in Tripoli and key towns in western Libya. Meanwhile, an escalation of open conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Islamist militias from western Libya is now very likely, and could potentially spill over into a broader tribal/regional conflict involving the LNA and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG).
Following UN Security Council approval on 14 June to inspect vessels off the coast of Libya, EU foreign ministers agreed at talks in Luxembourg on 20 June to extend Operation Sophia to July 2017, and tasked it with supporting Libya’s coast guard and navy. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 15 June, special envoy for Libya Jonathan Winer told the committee that the Obama administration seeks to support the Government of National Accord (GNA) with a $56 million aid package.
GNA-aligned forces from Misrata managed to take full control of Sirte port’s and eastern coastline in Sawawa on 10 June. Libyan navy vessels blockaded the port as GNA forces advanced from the southeast, aided by airstrikes throughout last week. ISIS is currently hemmed into 20 square kilometers at Sirte’s center. Further, ISIS has lost control of all its coastal territory and the port will likely be used as a key transport route for GNA forces until ISIS is eliminated.
As militias nominally aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) made highly impressive gains against ISIS in Sirte last week, and a degree of euphoria has gripped international actors and some GNA supporters, these gains have not automatically led to authentic political unity among Libya’s major anti-ISIS factions. To the contrary, prospects for unity and strengthened political legitimacy for the GNA are lower, and the likelihood of renewed civil conflict higher, due to three factors identified this week.
Despite the steady advance on Sirte by the Bunyan Marsus coalition, there were no significant actions taken by the Western international community last week. Most notably, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution to extend the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) mandate to December 15, 2016, and encouraged UNSMIL to re-establish a permanent presence in the country.
The Government of National Accord’s Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus operation room continued to make significant strides against ISIS this week, advancing to within two kilometres southwest of Sirte, and forcing ISIS to retreat towards the city. However, this does not mean that a frontal assault on Sirte is imminent. Despite its recent losses, ISIS is still rumoured to have sleeper cells in and around Surman, Misrata and Sabratha.
The Government of National Accord’s (GNA) establishment of the Adjabiya-Sirte operations room to coordinate the anti-ISIS campaign from the east, and de-facto reinstatement of Ibrahim Jadhran as head of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) in the central region, in tandem with the PFG attack on ISIS in Libya’s oil crescent, signals that a deal has been made between the GNA and local actors in the oil crescent that circumvents Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). While this dynamic effectively puts the GNA in a firm position to negotiate workable, yet temporary, alliances with rival militias to focus on the fight against ISIS, it threatens to expose the GNA to hijacking by groups that are not under its direct control, and who have no other overlapping interests than the defeat of ISIS in Sirte.