On 27 January, the GNA’s Minister of Defence in the GNA, announced that 1,300 soldiers have received military training with Turkish forces in Libya. On 28 January, The Times reported that a Russian air defence missile system was secretly flown from Zuwwara to a US air base in Germany. On 28 January, the Acting Head of UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams, called on the UNSC to pass a resolution to dissolve all parallel executive entities. On 1 February, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) opened in Geneva.

On 21 January, UNSMIL announced the start of the nomination period for the submission of candidates for the three-member Presidency Council (PC) and the post of Prime Minister. On 23 January, the 90-day deadline for the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries from Libya, as agreed in the October 23 ceasefire, passed largely unheeded.

On 15 January, the UNSC approved Jan Kubis as the new SRSG and Head of UNSMIL to replace Stephanie Williams. On 19 January, UNSMIL announced that the LPDF has agreed on a mechanism for selecting the reformed PC and new executive authority in Libya.

On 6 January, UNSMIL announced that it had convened the second virtual meeting of the LPDF’s Advisory Committee. On 9 January, UNSMIL issued a statement announcing its “expectation” that international monitors will be deployed to support Libya’s 5+5 ceasefire agreement. 

On 29 December, the GNA Foreign Minister met with his Russian counterpart to discuss political and military developments in Libya. On 30 December, the UNSG wrote to the members of the UNSC requesting the creation of a security monitoring group for Libya. On 2 January, the Acting Head UNSMIL, issued a statement announcing that UNSMIL had formed an Advisory Committee for the LPDF.

On 23 December, the Turkish parliament approved the deployment of troops to Libya for a further 18 months. On 26 December, Turkish Defence Minister and a Turkish Military delegation arrived in Tripoli for meetings with the GNA. On 27 December, an Egyptian delegation arrived in Tripoli for an official visit.

On 16 December, the GNA’s Interior Minister met with the US Ambassador to Libya to discuss security cooperation between the US and the GNA. On 17 December, the Italian Prime Minister met with Haftar to review developments in the Libyan-Libyan dialogues. On 19 December, the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service reportedly met with Haftar to discuss joint security issues.

On 10 December, the LNA spokesman declared that Libya was in a ‘state of war’ with Turkey. On 10 December, the GNA released two Russian citizens who had been held on charges of election meddling. On 12 December, the Turkish presidency submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament to extend troop deployment in Libya.

Over the last week, there have been signs that international actors are stepping up military engagement, potentially violating the permanent ceasefire agreement. On 4 December, the GNA signed a military cooperation agreement with Italy to strengthen capacities in training and health care activities. On 6 December, the SOHR reported that Turkey was preparing to send a new batch of Syrian fighters to Libya. On the same day, a document surfaced dating back to November revealing that 1,200 soldiers from the Sudanese paramilitary RSF were given permission to be deployed at Jufra airbase.

On 25 November, the US unilaterally blacklisted the Kaniyat militia. On 24 November, Speaker of the HoR, Saleh, arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian officials. On 23 November, the 5+5 JMC met with the Security Working Group formed through the so-called Berlin process of January 2020 to brief the international community.

On 23 November, Germany accused Turkey of preventing German forces belonging to the EU mission Operation IRINI from fully searching a Turkish cargo ship. The same day Sputnik reported that the speaker of the HoR, Saleh, would be visiting Moscow soon. On 20 November, UNSG Guterres told the UNSC that he would name Bulgarian politician, Nikolai Mladenov, as the new UN Special Envoy to Libya. On 18 November, the USs House of Representatives voted to pass the Libya Stabilization Act. On 18 November, GNA MoI, Bashaagha traveled to Paris for several days.

On the evening of 15 November, the UN-facilitated LPDF concluded its discussions in Tunis. On 17 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit the Libyan capital of Tripoli and the city of Misrata. On 12 November, GNA Defence Minister al-Namroush met in Doha with Qatari Foreign Minister and Deputy PM Abdurrahman al-Thanni.

On 9 November, the UN-facilitated dialogue process known as the LPDF began its first meetings in Tunis. On 3 November, Acting Head of UNSMIL, Williams, said that a meeting of the JMC had led to agreements for implementing the ceasefire that had been announced on 23 October. On 4 November, GNA MoI Bashaagha arrived in Cairo to discuss security cooperation with Egyptian officials. On 5 November, representatives from the HoR and the HCS met in Morocco for a third round of talks. On 6 November, the US Ambassador to Libya, Norland, spoke with GNA Foreign Minister Siyala about the US intention to secure a property in the capital Tripoli.

On 1 November, Acting Head of UNSMIL, Williams met with Deputy PM of the GNA, Maiteeq to discuss the LPDF. On 1 November, head of the HCS, al-Mishri and an accompanying delegation arrived in Doha to meet with the emir of Qatar, al-Thani. On 1 November, the Russian representative to the UNSC, Nebenzia, reportedly announced Russia’s full support for the exit of all foreign mercenaries from Libya. On 2 November, the US Ambassador to Libya, Norland, travelled to Moscow. On 31 October, Speaker of HoR, Saleh arrived in Cairo.

Several countries and international organizations welcomed the ceasefire announcement from 23 October. On 25 October, UNSMIL released the names of 75 delegates invited to participate in the LPDF. On 22 October, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov reportedly received his Turkish counterpart, Sedan Onal, in Moscow for a new round of consultations on resolving the Libyan and Syrian crises.

On 12 October, Acting Head of UNSMIL, Williams, met with Tunisian President Saied to begin discussing details of the LPDF scheduled to take place in Tunisia. On 14 October, Italian Foreign Minister di Maio met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. On 15 October, the UN released a statement asserting that the HoR and the HCS had agreed at the end of the 11-13 October talks in Cairo. On 16 October, the GNA said that the Foreign Minister, Siyala, had met with the Turkish Ambassador to Libya, Aksen. On 17 October, it was reported that Williams had been holding a series of meetings with mayors from municipalities across Libya.