On 21 February, Reuters revealed that a report submitted to the UNSC states that Erik Prince provided private military services to the LNA. This week, members of the 5+5 JMC travelled to Moscow to discuss the ‘unofficial Russia presence’ in Libya via the Wagner Group. Reports also emerged that technicals belonging to Sudanese mercenaries departed Libya.

On 8 February, the Russian Foreign Minister, spoke to the new Prime Minister designate for Libya and the new President of the Presidency Council. On 15 February, an Egyptian delegation arrived in Tripoli to explore the reopening of the Egyptian embassy in the Libyan capital.

On 2 February, the UN published its Panel of Experts report on Sudan including details of the UAE’s involvement with the LNA in Libya. On 4 February, the UNSC instructed the UNSG to deploy international monitors in Libya. On 5 February, the LPDF elected Abdul Hameed Dabaiba as the new Prime Minister for Libya. On 6 February, the 5+5 JMC agreed to clear mines from Sirte ahead of the reopening of the coastal road.

On 27 January, the GNA’s Minister of Defence in the GNA, announced that 1,300 soldiers have received military training with Turkish forces in Libya. On 28 January, The Times reported that a Russian air defence missile system was secretly flown from Zuwwara to a US air base in Germany. On 28 January, the Acting Head of UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams, called on the UNSC to pass a resolution to dissolve all parallel executive entities. On 1 February, the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) opened in Geneva.

On 21 January, UNSMIL announced the start of the nomination period for the submission of candidates for the three-member Presidency Council (PC) and the post of Prime Minister. On 23 January, the 90-day deadline for the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries from Libya, as agreed in the October 23 ceasefire, passed largely unheeded.

On 15 January, the UNSC approved Jan Kubis as the new SRSG and Head of UNSMIL to replace Stephanie Williams. On 19 January, UNSMIL announced that the LPDF has agreed on a mechanism for selecting the reformed PC and new executive authority in Libya.

On 6 January, UNSMIL announced that it had convened the second virtual meeting of the LPDF’s Advisory Committee. On 9 January, UNSMIL issued a statement announcing its “expectation” that international monitors will be deployed to support Libya’s 5+5 ceasefire agreement. 

On 29 December, the GNA Foreign Minister met with his Russian counterpart to discuss political and military developments in Libya. On 30 December, the UNSG wrote to the members of the UNSC requesting the creation of a security monitoring group for Libya. On 2 January, the Acting Head UNSMIL, issued a statement announcing that UNSMIL had formed an Advisory Committee for the LPDF.

On 23 December, the Turkish parliament approved the deployment of troops to Libya for a further 18 months. On 26 December, Turkish Defence Minister and a Turkish Military delegation arrived in Tripoli for meetings with the GNA. On 27 December, an Egyptian delegation arrived in Tripoli for an official visit.

On 16 December, the GNA’s Interior Minister met with the US Ambassador to Libya to discuss security cooperation between the US and the GNA. On 17 December, the Italian Prime Minister met with Haftar to review developments in the Libyan-Libyan dialogues. On 19 December, the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service reportedly met with Haftar to discuss joint security issues.

On 10 December, the LNA spokesman declared that Libya was in a ‘state of war’ with Turkey. On 10 December, the GNA released two Russian citizens who had been held on charges of election meddling. On 12 December, the Turkish presidency submitted a motion to the Turkish parliament to extend troop deployment in Libya.

Over the last week, there have been signs that international actors are stepping up military engagement, potentially violating the permanent ceasefire agreement. On 4 December, the GNA signed a military cooperation agreement with Italy to strengthen capacities in training and health care activities. On 6 December, the SOHR reported that Turkey was preparing to send a new batch of Syrian fighters to Libya. On the same day, a document surfaced dating back to November revealing that 1,200 soldiers from the Sudanese paramilitary RSF were given permission to be deployed at Jufra airbase.

On 25 November, the US unilaterally blacklisted the Kaniyat militia. On 24 November, Speaker of the HoR, Saleh, arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian officials. On 23 November, the 5+5 JMC met with the Security Working Group formed through the so-called Berlin process of January 2020 to brief the international community.

On 23 November, Germany accused Turkey of preventing German forces belonging to the EU mission Operation IRINI from fully searching a Turkish cargo ship. The same day Sputnik reported that the speaker of the HoR, Saleh, would be visiting Moscow soon. On 20 November, UNSG Guterres told the UNSC that he would name Bulgarian politician, Nikolai Mladenov, as the new UN Special Envoy to Libya. On 18 November, the USs House of Representatives voted to pass the Libya Stabilization Act. On 18 November, GNA MoI, Bashaagha traveled to Paris for several days.

On the evening of 15 November, the UN-facilitated LPDF concluded its discussions in Tunis. On 17 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit the Libyan capital of Tripoli and the city of Misrata. On 12 November, GNA Defence Minister al-Namroush met in Doha with Qatari Foreign Minister and Deputy PM Abdurrahman al-Thanni.

On 9 November, the UN-facilitated dialogue process known as the LPDF began its first meetings in Tunis. On 3 November, Acting Head of UNSMIL, Williams, said that a meeting of the JMC had led to agreements for implementing the ceasefire that had been announced on 23 October. On 4 November, GNA MoI Bashaagha arrived in Cairo to discuss security cooperation with Egyptian officials. On 5 November, representatives from the HoR and the HCS met in Morocco for a third round of talks. On 6 November, the US Ambassador to Libya, Norland, spoke with GNA Foreign Minister Siyala about the US intention to secure a property in the capital Tripoli.