Who Pays for ISIS in Libya?
August 24 2016
James Roslington and Jason Pack discuss the financing of ISIS in Libya is this report for Hate Speech International.
Post-revolutionary Discontent and F(r)actionalisation in the Maghreb: Managing the Tunisa-Libya Border Dynamics
Grégory Chauzal Sofia Zavagli argue for bottom-up solutions to conflict in Tunisia and Libya in this Clingendael Report from the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.
Defeating the Islamic State: Remaining Challenges
8 July 2016
Andrew Engel of The Washington Institute has published a report on IS in Libya. The battle to uproot the Islamic State in Libya (ISL) from Sirte, the group’s de facto North African capital, may soon result in victory for the Western-backed Operation Binyan Marsous (Solid Structure). Although defeating ISL in the heart of Libya’s “oil crescent” is cause for celebration, the group will continue to conduct irregular warfare and could find safe haven in the southern desert, while some of its foreign fighters might return to their home countries to wage terrorist attacks.
Libya Since 2011: Political Transformation and Violence
24 May 2016
The Middle East Policy Council released an essay by Hanspeter Mattes entitled Libya Since 2011: Political Transformation and Violence. Mr. Mattes forecasts continuing violence and stalemate in Libya.
In Libya, Politics Precedes Victory
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published In Libya, Politics Precedes Victory by Terek Megerisi in its Sada Journal in which he is sharply critical of foreign efforts to stabilize Libya.
Interview with Karim Mezran
16 May 2016
Atlantic Council Resident Senior Fellow Karim Mezran was interviewed by Ashish Kumar Sen about potential western military aid for Libya’s Government of National Accord.
Intervening Better: Europe’s Second Chance in Libya and A Quick Guide to Libya’s Main Players
The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) released a report Intervening Better: Europe’s Second Chance in Libya by Mattia Toaldo strongly advocating for support of the unity government. ECFR also released a Quick Guide to Libya’s Main Players.
Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy
The Congressional Research Service released a report by long time Middle East analyst Christopher Blanchard entitled Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy. The report suggestions growing U.S. counterterrorism concerns and potential for expanding U.S. military involvement in Libya even as political consensus in the country remains elusive.
Struggling to Fight Islamic State in a Fractured Libya
12 May 2016
Frederic Wehrey of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled Struggling to Fight Islamic State in a Fractured Libya cautioning that Western focus on ISIS in Libya may further divide rather than unite the country.
What Will Interventions Look Like After Libya?
3 May 2016
PBS interviewed a number of leading Libya watchers about the NATO intervention in Libya. Karim Mezran characterized the conflict in Libya prior to NATO intervention as a civil war rather than a revolution and emphasized the importance of reconciliation and inclusion of Libyans who supported Qadhafi instead of a rush to elections in the aftermath of the war. A video about Benghazi is also included.
ISIS’s Courses of Action out of Sirte
29 April 2016
In her article for AEI’s Critical Threats site, Emily Estelle argues that the offensive against Sirte could successfully force IS to abandon the city and push the group south into the Fezzan. Estelle’s analysis may be premature, however, given that no Misratan militia commanders have yet backed the unity government plan and the composition of the task force itself remains to be determined. In fact, we believe that even if a full frontal assault materialized–a development which may not occur for months–IS may weather the attack. However, Ms Estelle is quite right in pointing out that the group could survive the conquest of Sirte and could easily establish itself in the Fezzan or in dispersed cells across the country.
Libyan Agreement on Life Support
26 April 2016
Writing for the Atlantic Council, Ronald Bruce St. John argues that the way forward for the political process in Libya is to “incorporate the traditional political model based on tribes and tribalism that has long bestowed legitimacy on Libyan governments.” Failure to do so risks exacerbating divisions rather than healing them.
Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya
9 March 2016
Letter From Tripoli
4 March 2016
The Next Front Against ISIS
7 February 2016
The Prize: Fighting for Libya’s Energy Wealth
In a report entitled The Prize: Fighting for Libya’s Energy Wealth, International Crisis Group draws attention to Libya’s most difficult challenge: creating a functioning unity government when all parties to the conflict are incentivised by the goal of controlling the country’s hydrocarbons and financial resources. Efforts must be made to de-link the conflict from these objectives, argues the report, including setting up parallel tracks to unity government negotiations on security and economic governance, and persuading the warring parties that the longer they fight, the less there is to fight over.
Between ISIS and a Failed State: The Saga of Libyan Islamists
Brooking working paper Between ISIS and a Failed State: The Saga of Libyan Islamists by Omar Ashoor discussing Libyan Islamist groups.