Local sources in Jufra report a new mobilization by GNA/Islamist affiliated groups who reportedly plan to attack Ras Lanuf port in the coming weeks. Rivalries between militias of various factions in Tripoli are escalating, with various rival armed groups implicated in clashes, kidnappings and armed assault.

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On 24 January, the Libyan Political Dialogue Group signed an agreement accepting six changes to the LPA, including reducing the PC membership to three and creating a new council to assume the powers of the Supreme Commander of the Libyan Army.

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In Tripoli, sporadic clashes took place last week between various militias affiliated with the Government of National Accord (GNA), and other hard-line anti-Haftar, Islamist militias nominally loyal to Khalifa al-Ghwell. Ghniwa’s forces attempted to retake control of the Ministry of Labor buildings at Hadba near the Military Academy buildings. The MoL building was taken over by al-Ghwell’s militias last week in an attempted ‘coup’.

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On 12 January, militias allied to Khalifa al-Ghwell, leader of a rival government in Tripoli, seized several ministerial buildings in Tripoli, while the whole of western and southern Libya continues to suffer chronic power outages, provoking tensions and anti-GNA sentiment

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The Misratan Third Force retook the Gweirat al-Mal checkpoint from the LNA, while LNA fighters conducted airstrikes against Jufra airbase, injuring the head of Misrata Military Council. This lead to calls for all Misratans to mobilize against Haftar in the south, while protests were held in the south calling for Misrata to withdraw.

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New hostilities between Misratan forces and the LNA threaten to destabilize southern Libya and weaken the GNA. Deputy PM Musa al-Koni resigned his position on the PC, saying it had failed the Libyan people, while the PC agreed the new 2017 Libyan budget and issued some major security decisions.

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The LNA defeated a counter-attack on the oil crescent launched from Jufra by allied forces including Jadhran loyalists, BDB fighters and some GNA forces. The attacking convoy was routed and the LNA even extended its control south of Jufra, all the way to Brak al-Shati. In Tripoli, tensions are high as anti-GNA Misratan forces mobilize to support the anti-GNA Islamist coalition, while protests took place after a video of militiamen raping a woman was released.

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Clashes in Libya indicate that the GNA is unable to control its own capital, further weakening its support in western Libya and hence its negotiating position. However, the declaration of BM forces’ victory against ISIS in Sirte could give the GNA a temporary boost in popularity given BM is nominally controlled by the GNA.

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Tensions continue to grow between various anti-GNA, Islamist and pro-GNA factions across the country. The prospect of an Islamist offensive against the LNA in the oil crescent, supported by the GNA, remains possible, while in Tripoli, there are fears of imminent clashes between hardliners allied with the Mufti and pro-GNA Tripoli militias like RADA.

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PM Fayez Serraj and his allies are taking active measures to entrench the GNA’s de facto control in the capital by creating new security forces and appointing ministers, provoking fears in Eastern Libya that the GNA intends to ‘go it alone’.

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GNA Defence Minister Mahdi al-Barghathi condemned Haftar and the LNA last week, accusing them of carrying out assassinations and human rights abuses in eastern Libya. The LNA fears Barghati is allying with BDB militias and Jadhran loyalists to launch a counter-attack on the oil crescent.

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Rapprochement efforts between the LNA and Misratan factions which side step the UN-process appear to be bearing fruit, with the pro-Haftar HoR President Agilah Saleh holding a flurry of meetings with rival politicians and militias this week. In western Libya, clashes have broken out in Zawiyya while in Tripoli, inter-militia tensions, crime and lawlessness are growing.

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2014
Jun June 21st: Haftar says 'terrorists should leave now or die here.' Mufti calls for anti-Haftar jihad
Jul
Aug Aug 3rd: BRSC overrun Saiqa base in Benghazi Aug 25th: HoR responds to the triumph of Libya Dawn by branding it terrorists
Sep
Oct Oct 19th: Hafter reverses slide in Benghazi with major offensive
Nov Nov 23rd: Haftar courts Ferjan tribe of Sirte in Dawn/Dignity wars
Dec Dec 14th: Anti-ISIS coalition between Haftar and DMSC in response to Shuruq
2015
Jan
Feb Feb 16th: Egypt bombs Derna
Mar Mar 28th: Misrata tries to dislodge ISIS from Sirte
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Aug 17th: Rebellion against ISIS in Sirte
Sep Sept 28th: Heavy fighting across the east, cooperation between LNA & DMSC
Oct
Nov Nov 23rd: Assassinations in Ajdabiya stoke tensions between LNA and PFG
Dec Dec 22nd: Joint Operations Room set up in Sabratha after explosions
2016
Jan Jan 5th: Jadhran says Haftar is as bad as ISIS
Feb
Mar Mar 2nd: LNA declares Ajdabiya liberated and makes significant gains in Benghazi Mar 29th: Misrata militias declare support for GNA
Apr Apr 5th: UN-mediated Presidential Council arrives in Tripoli
May May 9th: PC sets up operations room to combat ISIS in Sirte area
Jun June 6th: GNA reinstates Jadhran as head of PFG, advances on Sirte
Jul July 11th: LNA suffers setbacks after suicide attacks, Jadhran occupies Zueitina port
Aug Aug 22nd: HoR rejects GNA, tensions grow in Tripoli between rival militias
Sep Sept 13th: Haftar seizes oil crescent ports from Jadhran
Oct Oct 4th: Haftar and LNA continue militarization of eastern Libya Oct 14th: Khalifa al-Ghwell seizes Rixos in Tripoli in coup attempt
Nov Nov 1st: Third Force cede control of Brak al-Shatti to LNA Nov 28th: PM Serraj says PC will not submit new cabinet to HoR
Dec Dec 7th: BDB forces attempt to retake oil ports from LNA, LNA extend control to Brak al-Shati
2017
Jan Jan 3rd: PC deputy prime minister for South Musa al-Koni resigns Jan 31st: Dialogue group agree in principle amendments to the LPA
Feb Feb 14th: Anti-GNA militias form ‘Libyan National guard’ as tensions rise in Tripoli
Mar Mar 7th: GNA condemns BDB takeover of oil crescent ports Mar 21st: Pro-GNA militias evict Ghwell from Tripoli
Apr Apr 11th: Clashes escalate between LNA and Misratans near Sebha Apr 25th: Saleh and Swehli meet in Rome
May May 23rd: GNA-affiliated forces kill up to 140 LNA fighters in surprise attack on Brak al-Shatti airbase May 30th: Pro-GNA militias evict hard-line anti-GNA militias from Tripoli
Jun
Jul
Aug