The Decline of ISIS in Libya and the Levant is a Concern for Tunisia

In an article for the Middle East Eye, Rhiannon Smith and Lachlan Wilson discuss how the military gains against ISIS first in Libya then in the Levant could have a destabilising impact on Tunisia as the thousands of Tunisians fighting overseas for IS begin to return home and look to establish a new IS vanguard in North Africa. This could result in an increased ISIS presence in Tunisia itself or a regrouping of IS cells with Tunisian support in Libya’s deserts and potential hotspots such as Sabratha.

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Actions & Reactions to the Evolution of ISIS in Libya

The Atlantic Council and Eye on ISIS in Libya have published a new interactive timeline that complements our recent publication “The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya.” Track ISIS and other Jihadist Groups’ movements throughout Libya year by year. The site allows you to click on individual links to explore any event in further detail.

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تقرير | نشأة وتطور تنظيم داعش في ليبيا

أطلق مركز رفيق الحريري للشرق الأوسط تقريره الجديد عن تنظيم داعش في ليبيا تحت عنوان “نشأة وتطور تنظيم داعش في ليبيا”، هذا التقرير يرصد تحول الساحة الليبية لتكون ساحة للتنظيمات الجهادية العالمية، مع التركيز على تنظيم داعش، فضلا عن التحذير من

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WATCH: Launch Event for ‘The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya’

Watch Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith and Karim Mezran discuss Eye on ISIS in Libya’s seminal report on ‘The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya’ during a launch event for the report hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.

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REPORT: The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya

In “The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya,” Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith and Karim Mezran examine ISIS’s pre-history, birth, expansion, consolidation, and dispersal in Libya, as well as the broader political context of the country –offering advice and recommendations for how Western governments and militaries should approach jihadist actors globally.

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On 20 June, the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Centre will convene a discussion on its new report, The Origins and Evolution of ISIS in Libya. The unique, comprehensive, and groundbreaking report examines the jihadist dynamics in Libya and offers recommendations to address this threat. The discussion will feature the report’s co-authors Jason Pack, Rhiannon Smith, and Karim Mezran, and the …

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Mapping Libya’s Jihadists

In a long form article for Norwegian NGO Hate Speech International, Jason Pack and Rhiannon Smith map out the history and context of Libya’s myriad jihadist groups.

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The Role of 20th Century Jihadism in Manchester Attack

In an article for Al Monitor, Jason Pack and Lydia Jabs discuss the role that suicide bomber Salman Abedi’s connection to, and his family’s long history within, Libya’s tight-knit activist Salafi movements may have had on radicalizing Abedi and facilitating last week’s attack in Manchester.

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Non Military Perspective on Recent Developments in Libya

Rhiannon Smith has authored a report for NATO’s Open Perspectives Exchange Network (OPEN) looking at non-military perspective on recent developments in Libya. She outlines the current situation in Libya and analyses how different organisations frame their approach to the country, whether in humanitarian, development, or political terms, highlighting the challenges of creating concrete results on the ground.

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Tactical Lessons from the Ejection of ISIS from Sirte

In the second instalment for Atlantic Council, Dr Alia Brahimi and Jason Pack discuss the tactical lessons that can be learnt from the ejection of ISIS from Sirte in December 2016. Although the authors stress that ISIS is far from defeated in Libya, the group’s loss of territorial control is significant. They argue that reliance on local anti-ISIS militia is double-edged, a light and targeted Western military footprint can be effective, and that the timing of any anti-ISIS military operation is key.

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Strategic Lessons from the Ejection of ISIS from Sirte

In an article for the Atlantic Council’s MENASource, Dr Alia Brahimi and Jason Pack write the first of two article looking at valuable lessons that can be learned from the ejection of the Islamic State (ISIS) from Sirte. This first article delves into the strategic lessons, arguing that 1) Governance failures drive jihadism; 3) Weakening ISIS strengthens al-Qaeda; and 3) ISIS’s governance model is unsustainable. A second article will look at the tactical lessons.

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Migration and Jihadism in the Sahel

The report looks at political rhetoric conflating migration across the Mediterranean with the apparent rise of violent jihadism in Europe and asks whether there is a demonstrable link between migrants, jihadist groups and the lucrative smuggling networks which link Africa to Europe, and if so, how can it be managed?

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Who Pays for ISIS in Libya?

In the report “Who pays for ISIS in Libya?”, James Roslington and Jason Pack look at the Libyan group’s sources of seed capital and how its financial model differs in key ways from that of the parent organization in Iraq and Syria. We conclude that ISIS’s financing mechanism in Libya appears to have failed long before the local group suffered its military reversals over the past few months. The Libya case study also reveals the importance of financing to ISIS’s and other jihadi organisations’ sustainability and organizational models throughout the world.

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