At the moment of partial victory in Sirte, various pillars that should make up the anti-ISIS coalition are feuding with each other. The House of Representatives (HoR) has rejected the Government of National Accord, while the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) are facing increasing tension over Zuetina in the oil crescent, and various interests are preventing oil production in order to seek their own demands.

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On 22 August, the HoR managed to hold its first session since February 2016 with the required legal quorum. Of the 101 members in attendance, 61 voted no-confidence on the current GNA cabinet, but gave the Presidential Council a final opportunity to submit an amended cabinet for a possible future endorsement vote. This latest development is quite a blow to the internationally recognized GNA, as certain ministers have already assumed their mandates, but may have to now be replaced… In Western Libya, the conflict map is becoming slightly more complicated. The main tension inside the capital is between pro-GNA militias and anti-GNA Islamist/Misratan affiliated factions, signaling a very likely conflict between these militias after the victory in Sirte is secured.

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New political wrangling within the GNA is widening rifts even further. On 10 August, the Presidential Council issued a statement threatening to nominate replacement candidates if two of its boycotting members, Ali Al Gatrani and Omar Laswad, did not rejoin within one week. The statement caused uproar among anti-GNA factions across Libya… Meanwhile, the GNA is unlikely to receive a significant boost in legitimacy or popular support until a total victory is achieved by Bunyan Marsus against ISIS in Sirte. However, even if this ISIS is crushed by the coalition, the GNA is not guaranteed to survive.

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In Benghazi, the Libyan National Army (LNA) captured the symbolic Guwarsha checkpoint from Islamist militants on 28 July. The Islamists retaliated with suicide car bomb attacks on 29 July that killed two LNA soldiers and wounded four, while ISIS conducted another on 30 July near the Guwarsha Chinese flats, injuring three soldiers… Meanwhile, the LNA has reconsolidated its control in southwest Benghazi, after successfully repelling an attack by the Benghazi Defense Brigade.

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