2014
Jun June 27th: Prominent civil society activist, Salwa Bughagis, killed likely by Jihadists
Jul July 14th: Libyan Abu Mahjan Al-Ta'ifi Brigade sends 50 men to Iraq to support ISIS
Aug
Sep Sept 8th: HoR moves against the Mufti, adding an overt religious dimension to the HoR/GNC conflict
Oct
Nov Nov 3rd: Shura Council of the Youth of Islam in Derna pledge their allegiance to ISIS, most high profile pledge to ISIS yet
Dec Dec 28th: Killing of Coptic doctor and daughter in Sirte and attack on Sidra both by ISIS precursor elements
2015
Jan Jan 19th: Coptic Christians abducted in Sirte
Feb Feb 16th: ISIS beheads 21 Egyptian Copts
Mar Mar 2nd: ISIS calls on fighters to come to Libya instead of Syria
Apr Apr 13th: Tripoli Wilaya of ISIS claim attacks against South Korean and Moroccan embassies
May May 11th: Clashes in Sirte btw Misratan 166 and local ISIS cells
Jun
Jul July 13th: In Twitter video ISIS acknowledges losses in Derna
Aug Aug 17th: Farjani uprising against ISIS in Sirte
Sep Sept 28th: Islamic State attacks the oil terminal at Sidra
Oct Oct 26th: Unidentified Jets bomb ISIS targets; executions continue in Sirte
Nov
Dec Dec 7th: In Tripoli, pro-GNC militias captured an alleged member of ISIS last week
Dec 15th: ISIS features Libya leader in Dabiq and establishes City Charter in Sirte
2016
Jan Jan 12th: 3-day ISIS assault on oil crescent ports
Jan 27th: Execution of 25 Sirte residents in the city square for various offenses
Feb Feb 17th: ISIS fights for survival in Benghazi and Derna, consolidating its forces in Sirte and Harwah
Mar Mar 22nd: After Brussels attacks videos show ISIS fighters in Sirte distributing celebratory candy
Apr Apr 5th: ISIS attacked the Al Beda 47 oil field, demands Sirte residents attend Fajr prayers
Apr 14th: Heavy fighting between ISIS and PFG between Bin Jawwad and Sidra
May May 9th: Surprise ISIS attack on Misratan forces in Abu Grein
May 30th: Significant gains by Bunyan Marsus GNA forces reduced ISIS to 200 km of coast line
Jun June 13th: Bunyan Marsus take full control of Sirte's port
June 27th: Bunyan Marsus estimate only 500-700 ISIS fighters in Sirte
Jul July 25th: Fight in Sirte protracts as ISIS mounts SVBIEDs in Misratan-controlled areas
Aug Aug 1st: Serraj announces US airstrikes
Aug 29th: SVBIED attacks reveal ISIS strategy
Sep Sept 20th: ISIS seepage southwards confirmed by clashes
Oct Oct 4th: Dutch journalist killed by ISIS sniper
Nov
Dec


In Sirte, fighting halted last week but resumed fiercely on 27 August. The break in the fighting was reportedly to allow wives and children of ISIS fighters to exit the conflict zone towards the southwest, though there is no evidence confirming this actually took place. It is likely that key ISIS commanders will have taken advantage of this lull in fighting to escape to the south, meaning the destruction of ISIS in Sirte will not mean the eradication of ISIS in Libya… On 28 August, Bunyan Marsus (BM) fighters aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) closed in on ISIS-held districts 1 and 3 of Sirte. At least 35 were killed and more than 180 injured as a result of fierce fighting and reportedly 14 attempted SVBIED attacks by ISIS.

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The Bunyan Marsus coalition continued its steady advance deep into the center of Sirte, taking major residential areas throughout the week with the help of US airstrikes. ISIS militants still fighting in these areas continue to show fierce resistance using snipers, mortars and SVBIEDs, but the gains made by Bunyan Marsus indicate that the entirety of Sirte may be liberated within the next two weeks.

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The Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition made great gains against ISIS in Sirte, pushing ISIS out of its stronghold in Ouagadougu Centre, Ibn Sina Hospital and Sirte University on 11 August. All three buildings were bastions of ISIS rule in the city, and the group’s downfall represents a significant degradation of its presence and control. Paradoxically, the GNA’s impending victory over ISIS is also a moment of rapid decline in its legitimacy. This observation was recognized by UN special envoy Martin Kobler in a recent interview, saying that popular support for the GNA is crumbling due to worsening economic and security conditions throughout Libya.

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Two major pronouncements were made this week. 1. Misratan forces continued their protracted advance into Sirte as battles supposedly moved into what Banyan Marsus is calling their ‘final stages’. 2. Simultaneously as the fight against ISIS has become less popular for some militia men in Tripoli, non-ISIS jihadis such as the grand mufti are expressing support for ISIS…. US support is also fuelling divides with Misratan ranks between pro-GNA formations and more anti-GNA hard-line militias. These divides may escalate the closer the BM gets to victory in Sirte. Anti GNA sentiment remains high in Misratan ranks, with many fighters rumoured to be actively ready to move against the GNA in Tripoli after victory in Sirte.

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After fierce fighting on 28-30 July, the Misratan-led Bunyan Marsus coalition took full control of the Hay Dollar area in Sirte. The operation has thus far cost more than 300 Bunyan Marsus lives, with another 1,500 injured… On 1 August, Government of National Accord Prime Minister Fayez Serraj made a televised speech announcing the beginning of US airstrikes against ISIS in Sirte, following a formal request by the Presidential Council.

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