2014
Jun June 21st: Haftar says 'terrorists should leave now or die here.' Mufti calls for anti-Haftar jihad
Jul
Aug Aug 3rd: BRSC overrun Saiqa base in Benghazi
Aug 25th: HoR responds to the triumph of Libya Dawn by branding it terrorists
Sep
Oct Oct 19th: Hafter reverses slide in Benghazi with major offensive
Nov Nov 23rd: Haftar courts Ferjan tribe of Sirte in Dawn/Dignity wars
Dec Dec 14th: Anti-ISIS coalition between Haftar and DMSC in response to Shuruq
2015
Jan
Feb Feb 16th: Egypt bombs Derna
Mar Mar 28th: Misrata tries to dislodge ISIS from Sirte
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Aug 17th: Rebellion against ISIS in Sirte
Sep Sept 28th: Heavy fighting across the east, cooperation between LNA & DMSC
Oct
Nov Nov 23rd: Assassinations in Ajdabiya stoke tensions between LNA and PFG
Dec Dec 22nd: Joint Operations Room set up in Sabratha after explosions
2016
Jan Jan 5th: Jadhran says Haftar is as bad as ISIS
Feb
Mar Mar 2nd: LNA declares Ajdabiya liberated and makes significant gains in Benghazi
Mar 29th: Misrata militias declare support for GNA
Apr Apr 5th: UN-mediated Presidential Council arrives in Tripoli
May May 9th: PC sets up operations room to combat ISIS in Sirte area
Jun June 6th: GNA reinstates Jadhran as head of PFG, advances on Sirte
Jul July 11th: LNA suffers setbacks after suicide attacks, Jadhran occupies Zueitina port
Aug Aug 22nd: HoR rejects GNA, tensions grow in Tripoli between rival militias
Sep Sept 13th: Haftar seizes oil crescent ports from Jadhran
Oct Oct 4th: Haftar and LNA continue militarization of eastern Libya
Nov
Dec


In the coming weeks, Libya’s oil crescent is likely to witness increased tension between three actors: the Libyan National Army (LNA), the Government of National Accord-aligned Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), and renegade Islamist militias… The reversal of military momentum once more in favour of the LNA, coupled with the Islamist subversion of the GNA’s anti-ISIS, efforts is bolstering the political position of Haftar and anti-GNA factions… After several Islamist militias broke away from the GNA’s Bunyan Marsus coalition and attacked Ajdabiya on 18 June, the GNA’s political position in the oil crescent was severely compromised, and with it the standing of PFG forces loyal to Ibrahim Jadhran… Meanwhile, the GNA is still holed up in Abu Setta naval base, while other militias affiliated to Islamist forces have a freer hand in the Tripoli.

Read Full Post

The political damage to the Government of National Accord (GNA), following the attack on Ajdabiya on 18 June by Islamist militias, may undo fragile militia alliances in Tripoli and key towns in western Libya. Meanwhile, an escalation of open conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) and Islamist militias from western Libya is now very likely, and could potentially spill over into a broader tribal/regional conflict involving the LNA and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG).

Read Full Post

As militias nominally aligned with the Government of National Accord (GNA) made highly impressive gains against ISIS in Sirte last week, and a degree of euphoria has gripped international actors and some GNA supporters, these gains have not automatically led to authentic political unity among Libya’s major anti-ISIS factions. To the contrary, prospects for unity and strengthened political legitimacy for the GNA are lower, and the likelihood of renewed civil conflict higher, due to three factors identified this week.

Read Full Post

The Government of National Accord’s (GNA) establishment of the Adjabiya-Sirte operations room to coordinate the anti-ISIS campaign from the east, and de-facto reinstatement of Ibrahim Jadhran as head of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) in the central region, in tandem with the PFG attack on ISIS in Libya’s oil crescent, signals that a deal has been made between the GNA and local actors in the oil crescent that circumvents Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). While this dynamic effectively puts the GNA in a firm position to negotiate workable, yet temporary, alliances with rival militias to focus on the fight against ISIS, it threatens to expose the GNA to hijacking by groups that are not under its direct control, and who have no other overlapping interests than the defeat of ISIS in Sirte.

Read Full Post